Personal Play: September 10th

Need a Win Tonight to get back on track‼️‼️

PERSONAL PLAY:

MLB:

Milwaukee Brewers @ Texas Rangers 2:35pm EST

This matchup projects as a pitchers’ duel, with Freddy Peralta (2.50 ERA, ~10 K/9) facing Merrill Kelly (3.16 ERA, 1.04 WHIP) and both teams ranking top-2 in MLB ERA in 2025. Globe Life Field plays slightly pitcher-friendly, further suppressing scoring compared to league averages. Over 10,000 simulations, the combined average score was just 6.4 runs, with the under 8 cashing more than two-thirds of the time and another ~12% pushing on exactly 8. Both bullpens have been sharp as well (Brewers ~3.8 ERA, Rangers ~3.7 ERA), so even if one starter exits early, late-inning scoring should remain limited. The Brewers’ offense has been above average, but Kelly’s historical success against Milwaukee (career 2.77 ERA vs MIL) helps neutralize their run potential. With the Rangers offense hovering below league average and Peralta in ace form, all indicators point to a low-scoring game that stays under 8 runs.

1 Unit Play: Under Total 8 Runs

LEAN:

Freddy Peralta’s elite strikeout stuff (nearly 10 K/9) gives Milwaukee a clear edge early, especially against a Rangers lineup that has struggled to generate consistent offense. Merrill Kelly is solid, but the Brewers’ bats average over 5 runs per game and project to scratch out more damage in the first five innings. With Peralta likely to work clean through the early frames, the Brewers hold the advantage to lead at the halfway point.

1/2 Unit Play: Brewers F5 ML