Personal Play: October 5th

That back-door cover last night was horrible. Let’s go 2-2 today!

PERSONAL PLAY:

NFL:

Patriots @ Bills 8:20pm EST

The Patriots have a strong chance to cover the spread because their offense, led by rookie quarterback Drake Maye and newly acquired Stefon Diggs, is starting to find rhythm, averaging top-10 passing efficiency in the NFL. Head coach Mike Vrabel has revitalized the team’s toughness and special-teams edge—Marcus Jones’ return game can flip field position and steal possessions. Buffalo’s defense, while elite on paper, has been vulnerable to mobile quarterbacks and scramble plays, a weakness Maye can exploit with designed runs and RPOs. The Bills also enter this game with key defenders—Matt Milano and Ed Oliver—limited by injuries, softening their pass rush and interior defense. Meanwhile, New England’s familiarity with Buffalo’s scheme (splitting the series last season) gives Vrabel the ability to design targeted pressures and play-action looks that slow Josh Allen. When you combine those matchup advantages with a +7.5 line, the Patriots’ balanced offense and disciplined defense give them a high-probability path to stay within one score on Sunday night.

1 Unit Play: Patriots +8.5 

DON’T TAKE BELOW +8

LEAN:

NFL:

Bucs @ Seahawks 4:05pm EST

Seattle’s balanced offense and disciplined defense should be too much for a banged-up Tampa Bay squad missing key playmakers like Mike Evans and Bucky Irving. Sam Darnold’s efficient short-to-intermediate passing, paired with Klint Kubiak’s motion-heavy scheme, will exploit the Buccaneers’ depleted secondary and sustain drives. On the other side, Baker Mayfield will struggle to stretch the field without Evans against Mike Macdonald’s disguised coverages and strong front seven, leading to multiple stalled drives. With home-field advantage, defensive depth, and superior situational playcalling, the Seahawks are projected to win and cover the 3-point spread, 24–20.

1/2 Unit Play: Seahawks -3