Personal Play: October 4th

1-1 last night down a half unit. We gotta lock in!

PERSONAL PLAY:

NCAAF:

Miami @ Florida State 7:30pm EST

Miami is the more complete team entering this matchup, boasting one of the nation’s most efficient offenses behind Georgia transfer Carson Beck, who’s elevated the Hurricanes’ passing game to top-10 levels nationally. Their offensive line has been dominant in both run- and pass-blocking, allowing Mark Fletcher Jr. and Chris Johnson Jr. to consistently keep Miami ahead of the chains. Defensively, the Hurricanes have been elite on third downs, holding opponents under 30% conversions, a key factor against an FSU offense that relies heavily on extending drives with quarterback scrambles. Special teams also favor Miami, as veteran kicker Bert Auburn provides stability and range compared to FSU’s freshman leg. While Florida State’s Tommy Castellanos can create chaos with his mobility, Miami’s front seven has the speed and discipline to contain him and limit explosive plays. Over 10,000 simulated outcomes, Miami’s efficiency and balance on both sides of the ball give them the clear edge — projecting a 30–25 win and a strong chance to cover the spread.

1 Unit Play: Miami -3

1/2 Unit Play: Miami -7