Personal Play: October 2nd
PUSH LAST NIGHT. I thought the Sox had it late in that game, but I still think they are the better coached team. And I really don’t think the Yankees can hit lefty’s. Definitely something to look at going forward.
PERSONAL PLAY:
MLB:
Red Sox @ Yankees 8:08pm EST
The Red Sox have a strong chance to take the lead through five innings because rookie lefty Connelly Early has shown excellent strikeout-to-walk ratios and advanced metrics like xFIP, which suggest he can suppress damage early. Boston’s lineup has consistently jumped on young or inexperienced pitchers, and Cam Schlittler fits that profile as a rookie right-hander making a high-pressure start. The Red Sox also hit better against right-handed pitching this season, giving them a matchup advantage at the plate in the early innings. In contrast, the Yankees tend to do more of their damage late, when their bullpen depth and power bats can swing momentum, meaning the first half of the game is Boston’s best window. Boston’s bullpen was heavily taxed in Game 2, so manager Alex Cora will likely push Early deeper through the first half, keeping his best relievers ready for the later innings. Taken together, the combination of Early’s upside, Boston’s splits versus righties, and New York’s tendency to surge late make the Red Sox the better bet to be leading after five innings.
3/4 Unit Play: Red Sox F5 ML
1/4 Unit Play: Red Sox Full Game ML
LEAN:
NFL:
49ers @ Rams 8:15pm EST
The Rams are positioned to cover the -7 spread because San Francisco’s offense is decimated—Brock Purdy, Jauan Jennings, Ricky Pearsall, Brandon Aiyuk, and George Kittle are all out, leaving Mac Jones with a skeleton crew of pass-catchers. Without Nick Bosa, the 49ers’ defense loses its most disruptive force, which lowers their ability to pressure Matthew Stafford and disrupt the Rams’ timing with Davante Adams and Puka Nacua. Sean McVay’s scheme combined with Chris Shula’s top-five EPA defense gives Los Angeles an advantage on both sides of the ball, especially on a short week at home. With better health, deeper weapons, and superior situational edges, the Rams are projected to win by multiple scores in most simulations, justifying confidence in them covering -7.
1/2 Unit Play: Rams -7