Personal Play: November 23rd
4-2 on Personal Plays this week. Tough watching Nebraska last night. Their defense didn’t show up. Nonetheless got NBA play and a NFL Lean. Let’s roll📈💸
PERSONAL PLAY:
NBA:
Heat @ 76ers 1:00pm EST
The 76ers have a strong edge in this matchup because Tyrese Maxey is playing at a true All-NBA offensive level, giving Philadelphia the single most dynamic scorer on the floor with Embiid out. Nick Nurse’s late-game schemes have been elite all season, and the Sixers own one of the best 4th-quarter defenses in the NBA, which is a major advantage against a Heat team that tends to fade defensively as games drag on. Philadelphia also has a clear rebounding advantage, especially on the offensive glass, where Miami ranks near the bottom of the league and routinely gives up second-chance points. Andre Drummond’s physicality and the Sixers’ collective size force Miami into tough half-court possessions, taking away some of the transition scoring that drives their league-leading offense. Maxey and Quentin Grimes can exploit Miami’s perimeter gaps, especially with the Heat missing defensive versatility due to injuries and rotation instability. Altogether, home-court energy, superior late-game execution, and a star guard capable of taking over stretch this into a game the 76ers are positioned to close out.
1 Unit Play: 76ers ML
LEAN:
NFL:
Bucs @ Rams 8:00pm EST
The Buccaneers are positioned to score more than 20 points because Baker Mayfield has been playing at a top-10 efficiency level, posting strong EPA/play numbers and protecting the football, which keeps drives alive and produces consistent scoring opportunities. Even without Mike Evans, Tampa’s offense has shown it can move the ball with Emeka Egbuka, Cade Otton, and a surging Sean Tucker, giving them enough balance to stress defenses horizontally and vertically. The Rams’ defense is elite overall, but the one area you can attack is underneath and in the flats, where Tampa excels with quick-game concepts that minimize pressure and create yards after catch. Tampa also benefits from playing with a top-10 scoring offense on the season (≈25 ppg), meaning they’ve repeatedly hit the 20+ mark even against above-average defenses. Their offensive line, although banged up, matches up reasonably well against the Rams’ front in pass protection, which should give Mayfield enough time to sustain 3–4 scoring drives. Finally, with expected negative or neutral game script, the Bucs should see increased pass volume, boosting total yardage and almost guaranteeing the opportunity to reach the 20–24 point range even if they play from behind.
1/4 Unit Play: Bucs Over Team Total 19.5pts
1/4 Unit Play: Under 1st Half Total 25.5