Personal Play: November 16th
1-1 yesterday. Terrible from Bama yesterday. 3 turnovers. We can’t catch a break. No complaining. Everything evens out. 2 plays today let’s go!
LEAN:
NFL:
Bears @ Vikings 1:00pm EST
The Bears’ offense is trending upward behind Caleb Williams, who’s coming off his most efficient stretch of the season and now plays indoors against a Vikings defense that thrives on pressure but gives up explosive plays when its blitzes don’t get home. Minnesota should score consistently as well, taking advantage of Chicago’s bottom-five run defense and the absence of LB T.J. Edwards, which opens the door for Aaron Jones and play-action shots to Jefferson and Addison. Both teams project above their season scoring averages in dome conditions, and the matchup naturally produces long drives mixed with chunk-play scoring, boosting total-point volatility upward. With nearly half of my 10,000-game simulation runs landing between 48 and 58 points, the statistical mean and game-flow matchup both point strongly toward the over 47.
1/2 Unit Play: Over 47 Total Points
PERSONAL PLAY:
NFL:
Seahawks @ Rams 4:05pm EST
The Rams are positioned to win and cover -3 because their offense is operating at an elite, multi-dimensional level behind Matthew Stafford, who is playing the most efficient football of his career with explosive production in both the intermediate and deep passing game. Their 13-personnel heavy scheme has become almost impossible to match up against, and Seattle’s pass defense—while solid—has struggled against high-level pocket passers who can punish soft zone windows, which is exactly where Stafford thrives. The Seahawks’ offense has been dangerous, but the loss of their starting center creates a major vulnerability against the Rams’ interior pressure, a matchup that consistently disrupts Sam Darnold’s timing and limits Seattle’s explosive plays. Los Angeles’ defense is also significantly more consistent on a down-to-down basis, ranking top-tier in EPA against both the run and pass, which forces Seattle into long drives rather than the quick-strike game they’ve relied on during their recent blowouts. Add in home-field advantage and McVay’s strong record in divisional game-planning, and the Rams hold clear situational and schematic edges. With their efficiency, trench advantages, and quarterback stability, the most likely outcome is a comfortable Rams win by one score, covering the -3.
1 Unit Play: Rams -3