Personal Play: November 15th
I got 2 plays for you today. Finishing the write up for the second one now. First one starts at 3:30. Let’s roll📈📈📈💸
PERSONAL PLAYS:
CFB:
Oklahoma @ Alabama 3:30pm EST
Alabama is positioned to win this game by more than 7.5 because their offensive efficiency, especially with Ty Simpson’s elite accuracy and extremely low turnover rate, consistently creates scoring separation that Oklahoma’s offense struggles to match. Oklahoma’s defense is strong, but with multiple starters either out or limited, Alabama’s passing attack should find more high-leverage throwing windows than they did in last year’s 24–3 loss. The Crimson Tide also hold a major situational edge at Bryant-Denny, where they’ve been dominant all season and historically close out tight games under Kalen DeBoer at one of the highest rates in the country. On the other side of the ball, Oklahoma’s offense has been inconsistent on the road and John Mateer’s elevated sack/INT profile gives Alabama extra projected possessions and favorable field position. Combined with Alabama’s ability to control tempo and win third down on both sides, the Tide repeatedly project into the 24–31 point range while keeping Oklahoma in the high-teens or low-20s. Across 10,000 simulations, those structural advantages push Alabama into a comfortable 7.5+ margin more often than not.
1 Unit Play: Alabama -6
PLAY 2:
CFB:
Utah @ Baylor 7:00pm EST
Utah is positioned to cover –8.5 because their offense has evolved into a top-10 unit nationally, averaging nearly 40 points per game and over 508 yards per game, and they tend to hit their ceiling against unranked defenses like Baylor’s. Their run game—powered by Ja’Quinden Jackson, Parker, and Dampier’s dual-threat ability—creates consistent early-down success, and Baylor has allowed 38.8 PPG vs winning FBS opponents, which aligns almost perfectly with Utah’s projected scoring band. Utah’s tempo and 3rd-down efficiency (around 50%) sustain long drives, while their explosive play rate gives them several quick-score opportunities against a Baylor defense that has struggled with chunk gains all season. On the other side of the ball, Utah’s top-10 defense forces opponents into negative scripts, meaning Baylor will likely need to pass 40+ times, giving Utah extra possessions and short fields that increase their scoring floor. Even in road environments, Dampier’s efficiency spikes—nearly 70% completions and 240+ passing yards per road game—which pairs with a dominant run scheme to push Utah comfortably past the 34-point threshold. With superior coaching, physical advantages in the trenches, and a large simulation edge, Utah projects to control the pace and win by double digits while finishing in the 35–41 point scoring range.
1/2 Unit: Utah -8.5
1/2 Unit: Utah Over Team Total 34pts