Personal Play: December 29th

7-1 last week! Let’s do it again this week📈💸🔒🔥

PERSONAL PLAY:

CBB:

Valparaiso @ Northern Iowa 8:00pm EST

Valparaiso +10.5 is live because Northern Iowa plays at one of the slowest tempos in the country (KenPom tempo rank in the 350s), and fewer possessions naturally shrink the number of chances UNI has to create separation.    Even with UNI’s excellent defense (top-15 adjusted defensive efficiency), their offense grades much lower (outside the top 200 on KenPom), which increases the odds of a “control the game but don’t bury them” type of win.    Valpo’s profile is scrappy enough to hang around: they’re more competitive defensively than their overall résumé suggests (KenPom has them around the mid-100s on adjusted defense), so UNI is less likely to get the easy runouts and layup lines that fuel double-digit covers.    This matchup also sets up for long stretches of half-court basketball—UNI’s preferred style—which makes every made three, every offensive rebound, and every trip to the line matter more for the underdog’s cover chances.    If Valpo can simply avoid live-ball turnovers and force UNI to score over a set defense, UNI’s lower-octane offense makes it hard to build (and maintain) an 11+ point cushion for 40 minutes.    Put it together and the most likely game script is UNI ahead most of the night, but the pace + UNI’s offensive limitations keep the margin hovering in the single digits often enough for Valparaiso to sneak inside +10.5. 

1 Unit Play: Valparaiso +11.5