Personal Play: December 27th
2 plays today, let’s roll!
LEAN:
CFB:
North Texas vs San Diego State 5:45
San Diego State is built to keep this within one score because its defense has consistently choked off explosive plays—allowing just 12.6 points per game and ranking No. 1 in yards allowed per pass attempt, which directly attacks what North Texas wants to do best through the air. Even if North Texas brings the nation’s most fireworks-heavy profile (averaging roughly six touchdowns per game), bowl games often tilt toward the unit that can travel and “show up” immediately—and elite defense is far more stable than timing-based offense on a neutral field. This matchup also sets up for SDSU’s preferred script: slow pace, run-heavy drives, and field-position football, which shortens the game and reduces total possessions—exactly what an underdog needs to cash +7.5. The situational angle favors the Aztecs too, with North Texas dealing with head-coach uncertainty (Eric Morris taking another job has been widely reported), and any wobble in focus is magnified when facing a defense that thrives on forcing long, mistake-prone drives. Meanwhile, the market itself is telling you this is a tight matchup despite the public gravitating toward points—major books have hovered around North Texas -6.5 to -7.5, which implies SDSU is very live to be in the game late. Put it together and the covering path is clear: if San Diego State forces even one extra punt/turnover and converts red-zone trips into touchdowns instead of field goals, its defensive ceiling plus a shortened game makes losing by 3–7 (or winning outright) the most realistic outcome.
1/2 Unit Play: San Diego State +7.5
PERSONAL PLAY:
CFB:
LSU @ Houston 9:15pm EST
Houston enters this game as the slightly favored team at home in NRG Stadium, riding a 9-3 season and momentum from a strong Big 12 campaign, while LSU comes in 7-5 amid coaching upheaval and key roster changes. The Cougars’ offense, led by QB Conner Weigman and playmakers like Amare Thomas and Tanner Koziol, has shown balanced production all season and benefits from continuity and minimal opt-outs, giving them a cohesion advantage over an LSU unit experiencing departures and lineup disruptions. Defensively, Houston’s front and secondary depth has been effective at limiting opposing rushing attacks and containing dynamic playmakers, matching up well against LSU’s inconsistent offense that has struggled to sustain big plays. Meanwhile, LSU has been compelled into a transitional role under interim coaching, which often leads to schematic unpredictability and lapses in execution—especially in bowl environments where preparation time is lengthy but focus can wane. Add in home-field energy and crowd support for the Cougars, backing a program on the rise in front of its fanbase, and you get a situational edge that can swing tight moments in Houston’s favor. Put together, Houston’s offensive balance, defensive stability, roster continuity, and coaching steadiness give them the best chance to control key stretches and close out a win over an LSU team still finding its footing.
1 Unit Play: Houston ML