Personal Play: December 21st

Big win yesterday! Let’s keep it rolling today! 2 Leans today, 1 NFL, 1 CBB.

CBB:

UC Davis @ Idaho State 6:00pm EST

UC Davis’s offense has the capability to keep this game tight because they average over 75 points per game and shoot a solid percentage from the field and the free-throw line, which can exploit Idaho State’s occasionally inconsistent defense to stay within striking distance. Despite being underdogs, the Aggies have already shown they can compete on the road by covering the spread in multiple away games this season, suggesting they won’t simply be blown out even in tough environments. Idaho State’s dominating home record ATS is impressive, but UC Davis’s balanced scoring attack and ability to hit timely shots can frustrate the Bengals and keep the margin closer than six points. The Aggies’ playmaking and rebounding numbers indicate they can control enough possessions to prevent big scoring runs, reducing the likelihood of a blowout. Historically, both teams’ head-to-head matchups have been competitive (including a UC Davis win in their last meeting), which reinforces that the Aggies can hang around late and cover the spread. Additionally, if Idaho State’s offense stagnates or UC Davis gets hot from three, a six-point cushion becomes easier for the underdog to protect, especially given the Aggies’ resilience in tight games. 

1/2 Unit Play: UC Davis +6

NFL:

Patriots @ Ravens 8:20pm EST

The Ravens are well-positioned to win and cover -3 because their offensive efficiency and physicality create a matchup edge the Patriots have struggled with all season. Baltimore’s offense is far more explosive and versatile, particularly in the run game, where their QB-driven rushing attack stresses discipline and gap integrity—an area where New England has consistently broken down against mobile quarterbacks. Defensively, the Ravens excel at disguising coverages and generating pressure without heavy blitzing, which is critical against a Patriots offense that ranks near the bottom of the league in explosive plays and red-zone efficiency. The Ravens’ strength of schedule has been significantly tougher, meaning their metrics are battle-tested, while New England’s numbers are inflated by stretches against weaker competition. Coaching also favors Baltimore, as their game-planning and in-game adjustments are sharper, especially in prime-time or standalone spots where preparation matters most. Ultimately, Baltimore’s ability to control tempo, win the trenches, and force the Patriots into predictable passing situations gives them a clear path to a multi-score win that comfortably clears the -3 spread.

1/4 Unit Play: Ravens ML

1/4 Unit Play: Ravens -3